New Mexico Weather: 6/21/16

In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was warm, clear, and still. We didn’t get any showers or thunderstorms last night, though there were some clouds.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny, hot day today, with a high temperature of 98 F, and an east wind of 5-10 mph, becoming south by this afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 70 F, with the 5-10 mph south wind, switching to an east wind by midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning some storms at higher elevations. These storms will have the potential for strong downburst winds.

The visible satellite imagery and the enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no clouds over the state this morning.These images have been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows that the area of dry air remains over northern Texas, just south of the edge of the heat ridge. However, we have nearly uniform moisture over New Mexico this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that today is slightly drier than yesterday, with only 0.62 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. However, the humidity peaks at around 650 mb, meaning our cloud deck might be a little lower today, when clouds form. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no significant thermal inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 18 kts, and the low-level shear was 17 kts. The shear at all levels was due to a mix of speed and directional changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, clear skies, and still winds, state wide. The dryline may have pushed east slightly, perhaps runing through the eastern 1/5 of the state.

The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state today. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows almost no flow aloft here in New Mexico, as we remain under the influence of the the high pressure aloft.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly rising air to the west of Albuquerque by this evening. This will lead to some cloud cover this evening.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. The Cold Air Advection (CAA) yesterday stalled and seems to have mixed out, leaving us with yet another hot day.

Overall, I expect another hot day today. I was expecting it to cool off slightly today, so I put off some outdoor work; now it looks like the weather will be a degree hotter today than it was yesterday.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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