In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is warm, still and mostly sunny. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 84.9 F, the relative humidity is 32%, the relative pressure is 30.34 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 1.6 mph from the east.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day with a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, a high temperature of 89 F, and a southeast wind of 10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms, a low temperature of 61 F and an east wind of 10 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning thunderstorm potential this afternoon- brief but heavy downpours and some small hail are possible with these storms.
The visible satellite imagery and water vapor imagery show no clouds over the entire state. These images have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows uniform moisture over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that we had quite a warm morning, with the surface temperature at 70 F. The atmosphere did contain 0.76 inches of moisture, even though there wasn’t a particularly damp layer. There was 66 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present this morning. There was also only a small thermal inversion, leaving the 0-3 km average lapse rate at 7.1 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 20 kts, and the low-level shear was 6 kts. Most shear was a mix of directional and speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the still, mild, clear air over the state this morning.
The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients, and none are expected to develop in the next six hours, according to the RAP.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows littler upper air flow, as we are in the middle of a large, broad ridge.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rising air over the state this afternoon.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect a few thunderstorms and showers today, though most, if not all, will remain below severe limits.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC