Now that I am back in NM for a few days, it is worth looking ahead to see when I may go out chasing again.
Day 1: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk today for parts of southern Texas. There is a Marginal Risk over the Great Lakes, though that is out of range for me.
The Great Lakes Marginal Risk has a 2% Tornado Threat Ring, and the Slight Risk over Texas has less than a 2%^ chance of tornadoes.
An upper-level trough is exiting the Great Plains, though Texas has plenty of moisture and a low-level jet to aid storm development. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) could reach 3500-5000 J/kg, leading to some short-lived, High Precipitation (HP) supercells. Not a good day for storm chasing.
Day 2: The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for tomorrow over the Texas Panhandle. This threat is based on lee-side troughing and the westward movement of the dryline. With ample moisture and upslope flow, there could be some severe storms tomorrow. The SPC also notes that the risk may increase, so I will be watching this area for a potential chase tomorrow.
Day 3: The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for the western Dakotas on Monday. This threat is based on the development of a surface low over the Black Hills region and a shortwave impulse that will pass through the area. Most of the storms will be clustered, so it probably isn’t worth the drive to chase these.
Day 4-8: The SPC has issued a “Predictability Too Low” statement for all of these days. There is virtually no agreement in model output. Most of them show a shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes, and most of them show a ridging pattern occurring by Day 6. However, outside of that, there is no agreement on storm coverage. I will probably not chase on these days.
Other than tomorrow, the pattern has settled into a quiet mode. I may get some work done next week instead of chasing.
Thank you for reading this post.
All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.