SPC Update

Time to examine the severe weather potential again for the next week. Perhaps there is some potential for storms at the end of this time period.

Day 1: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for today across a large swath of the Great Plains.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring from just west of Kansas City to just west of Chicago.

Today’s Slight Risk is based on a strong cold front that is running through the Great Plains. The instability is relatively weak and the warm sector is still a little moisture-starved, leading to high based storms, though some tornadoes will be possible in the 2% Tornado Threat ring. Storms are already beginning to form from northeastern Kansas into central Iowa.

Day 2: The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe storms across west Texas and up the Rio Grande Rift into New Mexico. I’ll have to keep my eyes open for this, though I’ll be at the NMT graduation and likely won’t go chasing.

This threat is based on diurnal heating combined with Warm Air Advection (WAA) that will push into the area all day. Storms will begin in the morning, but then continue throughout the day. The primary threat will be hail and gusty downdraft winds.

Day 3: The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for Day 3 as well. It will be a similar threat area to Day 2, though it is tempered with possible cloud cover from the Day 2 storms, which will decrease the diurnal heating.

Day 4-8: The SPC has issued “Predictability Too Low” statements of all of these days. A surface low pressure system will develop and move east, dragging with it a cold front. The spacial placement (particularly in the north-south directions) depends on which model you ask. However, the placement of this low will determine the severe threat for this time period.

Thank you for reading this post.

All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, SPC 1-7 day and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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