In Socorro this morning, the weather was cool, still and sunny. It is warmer than it was yesterday, thankfully.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 71 F. There may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon, and there is a 10% chance of precipitation. The 5 mph northwest wind will shift to northeast by the evening. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 45 F and 5-10 mph northeast winds. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for some storms and high winds later this week.
The visible satellite imagery and enhanced infrared satellite imagery show no clouds over New Mexico today. They have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows zonal flow of moisture across the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp sounding this morning. There was 0.43 inches of precipitable water and no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.0 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 61 kts, and the low-level shear was 3 kts. The low-level shear (the little that is available) is due to directional changes, while the deep-layer shear is almost entirely due to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show still winds, clear skies, and cool temperatures across the state this morning.
The surface pressure map shows a 1020 mb high pressure system to our west, and no strong pressure gradients across the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a deep trough that has pushed into the southeastern states. New Mexico is on the backside of the trough, and the southern part of the state will see zonal flow, whereas the northern part will see either southerly flow, or virtually no flow at all.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. The winds blow parallel to the thermal gradient over the NM/TX border. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect a sunny and clear day today. I don’t expect showers to be widespread; there was some rising air at 700 mb, just nothing noteworthy. Perhaps I have underestimated the convection and there will be some showers today.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC