I ended up spending last night in Socorro and commuting to Albuquerque this morning. So far, the morning has been cloudy, with rain from Socorro to Belen, and perhaps a little chilly.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a 30% chance of showers and a high temperature of 60 F. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers, and a low temperature of 41 F. Winds will be 5 to 10 mph from the west. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the chance of small (but large quantities) of hail in the lower Rio Grande Valley today. Later this week and into the weekend, there is a chance of severe storms and snow in the mountains. Skywarn Spotter activation may be required on Friday.
The visible satellite imagery shows the precipitation-producing clouds through much of the state, including those along the I-25 corridor where I was driving this morning.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that some of these clouds just west of I-25 were quite thick. It looks like I got through there before the heavy rains arrived.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows deeper moisture in a few pockets across the sate, particularly west of I-25 again. Overall, there is plenty of moisture, statewide.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid sounding this morning. There was 0.42 inches of precipitable water and no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the column this morning. There was a slight thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 39 kts, and the low-level shear was 15 kts. The shear was a mixture of speed and directional shear at all levels.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cooler temperatures and low wind speeds and high humidity across much of the state. The radar overlay shows falling precipitation along the I-25 corridor, as I experienced this morning.
The surface pressure map shows no major pressure gradients across the state this morning. The RAP shows no major pressure changes over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows an upper level low moving over the state. As it does, our 300 mb winds will all but cease, as the jetstream dips south of the state.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) punching into the southeastern corner of the state. This cold air will linger for a few days.
Overall, I expect a damp, rainy day throughout the Albuquerque Metro area. I will probably plant a few things in my garden this evening, but I am anticipating walking through the mud to do so.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC