In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is mostly sunny with a few clouds on the horizon. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 42.3 F, the relative humidity was 99%, and the relative pressure was 30.19 in Hg and steady. I have ordered a new anemometer, so hopefully, I will be able to report those values soon.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a partly sunny day today, with a high of 73 F and southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy with a low temperature of 46 F and 5 to 10 mph southwest winds, shifting west by midnight. The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning showers and thunderstorms (and snow above 9500′) on Monday and Tuesday. Skywarn Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that there are a few lingering thick clouds, though they are on their way east. The skies are clearing.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that the atmosphere is currently drying out behind an impulse that has moved into Texas.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with 100% relative humidity at the surface, and low dewpoint depressions until a break at around 600 mb. There was 0.49 inches of precipitable water and no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present this morning. There was no strong thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 26 kts, and the low-level shear was 13 kts. Shear at all levels was due to a mixture of directional and speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the still winds and humid atmosphere, with many places having equal dewpoint and temperature values at the surface.
The surface pressure map shows stable pressure over the state this morning, with no strong pressure gradients present. The RAP shows low pressure moving east and intensifying slightly over Wyoming in the next six hours. This will expand southward (due to lee-side effects), but even that will only produce a moderate gradient across the very northeastern corner of the state.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a closed low pressure system off the coast of southern California. However, we have zonal flow today over the state, as the trough continues eastward.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect less rain today, if there is any at all. The weather may be quite pleasant, actually. I don’t yet know the official rainfall total from last night, but there was plenty of standing water on the roads, and my roof was leaking (I am having this replaced soon; we are waiting on the materials).
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC