In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is cool, overcast and still. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 51.4 F, the relative humidity is 48% and the relative pressure is 30.28 in Hg and steady. My anemometer is still broken.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly cloudy day with a high temperature of a 63 F, and southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. There is a 40% chance of showers this morning, and some potential thunderstorms after 1 pm. This evening will be cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F, and a 60% chance of showers through the evening. The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning gusty winds through today, some potential storms this afternoon, and some snow above 9000′. Skywarn Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The visible satellite imagery shows the heavy cloud cover over much of the state this morning.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds are thick over the northwestern corner of the state, and that some thicker clouds have moved through the southeastern corner and into Texas.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows a center of circulation over northern Arizona, and plenty of moisture over the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a much damper atmosphere. The humidity was nearly 100% at several layers (600 mb, 500 mb). There was 0.48 inches of precipitable water and no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present in the column this morning. There was a slight thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 25 kts, and the low-level shear was 24 kts. The shear at all levels was a combination of speed and directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, higher dewpoints (as compared to the last few days), and light, variable winds. The radar overlay shows rain along the I-25 corridor south of Albuquerque.
The surface pressure map shows low pressure near the Four Corners area, with only a slight pressure gradient across the state this morning. The RAP shows the pressure dropping over the Colorado Rocky Mountains, though our pressure gradient will not strengthen significantly over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows the trough moving east, with New Mexico on the western side. The chart shows that we will have mostly zonal flow today. There is a closed low approaching from the west that I will be watching over the next few days, as it will likely bring precipitation as well.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect a rainy day today. I really want to get my garden started this weekend; it looks like rain for several days, and it would be nice to have that rain go into growing my garden instead of running off into the yard.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC