The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk today for parts of the Deep South.
Associated with the Enhanced Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring.
The SPC is basing this threat on ongoing, widespread storms in the area along a baroclinic zone that extends through the threat area. The primary threat will be hail, though gusty winds and an occasional tornado are possible.
The SPC has also issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the area.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak, zonal flow over the area.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the Enhanced Risk area. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the Enhanced Risk area. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the Enhanced Risk area. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect that the storms will continue on, producing large hail. Stay tuned to your local media outlets or the National Weather Service (NWS) for up to date information. I’m not doing a full analysis today, as I am about to leave for a weekend in Denver.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC