Slight Risk: 3/9/16

Yesterday’s storms only produced one tornado, in Tolar, TX. Here are the severe weather reports from yesterday’s storms:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk today for an area along the Gulf Coast.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 5% Tornado Threat Ring.

The SPC is basing this threat on the deep moisture from the Gulf and its interaction with the trough and several outflow boundaries again today. However, the cloudy skies will limit diurnal heating and limited mid-level buoyancy will temper the severe threat today, as compared to yesterday.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the trough has deepened considerably, and an upper-level, closed low has formed over Mexico. There is a weak jetstreak that will eject near the Slight Risk area this afternoon. Notice how far south this trough dips!

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that the closed low extends into the 500 mb region as well. Even so, the Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) into the Slight Risk area is weak.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a strong pocket of rapidly-rising air in the middle of our Slight Risk area.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows winds blowing in from the Gulf of Mexico into eastern Texas and Louisiana, bringing with them plenty of moisture. The thermal gradient is weak, but the winds are strong enough that there is some Warm Air Advection (WAA) into the Slight Risk area. The gradient is a little stronger on the Texas side versus the Louisiana side.

I have a few other projects happening this afternoon, so I am not going to do a full analysis.

Overall, I expect this mass of storms to continue moving east, though I am just not seeing the ingredients we saw yesterday. However diminished the threat may be today, please stay tuned to local weather/news outlets for more up-to-date information.

Thank you for reading my really lame forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Follow Up, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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