New Mexico Weather: 2/13/16

In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was sunny, cool and still. The backyard weather station says that the temperature is 61.7 F, the relative humidity is 23%, the relative pressure is 30.35 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 1.6 mph from the southeast. There is not a cloud in the sky.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 73 F and 5 mph southwest winds. This evening will be mostly clear, with 5 mph northwest winds and a low temperature of 35 F. The NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook for later this week concerning fire weather. Otherwise, the biggest threat over the next few days is getting sunburn. Sorry about your bad luck, east coast.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few light clouds over northern and southern New Mexico, with a big clear stripe along the I-40 corridor.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that the scattered clouds in the south were slightly thicker.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows a small disturbance running through New Mexico, such that the northwestern and southeastern parts of the state have more moisture than the other quadrants.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another dry sounding, with high dewpoint depressions and 0.20 inches of precipitable water. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.6 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 29 kts, and the low-level shear was 10 kts. The shear was largely due to speed changes.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show still winds, clear skies, cool temperatures, and low dewpoints, statewide.

The surface pressure map shows that New Mexico is still under high pressure, though the pressure has dropped from earlier this week. There is a lee-side low forming east of the Rockies in Colorado and Wyoming, though it does not extend into New Mexico.

The RAP shows the pressure dropping over the next six hours as this lee-side low moves east from the mountains.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state this afternoon. A new trough is forming that will impact the area later this week. However, it does not appear to be the generator of any foul weather.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post.

Overall, I expect a sunny, still, cloudless day today. Unfortunately, many activities today will keep me inside, though I hope to knock out a few more of the inside activities so that I may be free Saturday and Sunday to romp around in the good weather.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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