In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was cold, clear and still. There is not a cloud in the sky, and according to the folks on the morning amateur radio net, nobody sees any clouds from Albuquerque to Santa Fe.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 58 F, and northwest winds of 5 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 29 F and northwest winds of 5 mph.
The visible satellite imagery and enhanced infrared satellite imagery confirm the cloudless skies, statewide. These images have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that we are still in a dry slot behind the trough.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows another dry day in the Albuquerque Metro area, with only 0.19 inches of precipitable water in the column and high dewpoint depressions. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) this morning. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.0 C/km, partially due to the varying temperature profile near the surface.
The deep-layer shear was 39 kts, and the low-level shear was 10 kts.
Shear was due to a mix of speed and directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the cold temperatures, clear skies and still winds, statewide. The back door cold front that entered the state has weakened.
The surface pressure map shows that the state is still dominated by high pressure. The high pressure system over Utah has not moved, though the pressure gradient through New Mexico has decreased. The RAP show that the pressure gradient will remain weak and our pressure will remain high for at least the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the trough has moved east. We are still on the west side of it, so our 300 mb winds will be out of the north today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no significant rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection. The back door cold front (and associated Cold Air Advection) has washed out and faded near the central mountains. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect a pleasant day today. I brought a coat for the morning, but this is one of those days where it pays to dress in layers.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC