In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is cool, clear and mostly still. The backyard weather station says that the temperature is 45.9 F, the relative humidity is 24%, the relative pressure is 30.49 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 0.7 mph from the north.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today in Rio Rancho, with a high temperature of 46 F and northwest winds 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 22 F and northwest winds 5-10 mph.
The visible satellite imagery and enhanced infrared satellite imagery show clear skies today, statewide. They have been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows a pocket of dry air over New Mexico today.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere today, with only 0.12 inches of precipitable water and high dewpoint depressions throughout the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) today. There was a strong thermal inversion between 750 mb and 600 mb, which limited the 0-3 km average lapse rate to 1.4 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 36 kts, and the low-level shear was 16 kts. All layers were a mix of speed and directional shear.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show calm winds, low temperatures, low dewpoints and clear skies throughout the state. There are no major frontal or moisture boundaries present in this chart.
The surface pressure map shows that New Mexico is still dominated by high pressure. The high pressure system over Utah (1042 mb, currently) dominates the region, though there is a sharp pressure gradient across Colorado and into northern New Mexico today. The RAP shows that this system will weaken over the next six hours, and that the pressure gradient will remain stationary, though slightly weaker.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the trough has moved on, leaving us with near-zonal flow by this evening.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection today. This chart has also been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect cool, breezy, and clear today in the Albuquerque Metro area. It even looks like we’ll get a break from the threat of snow for several days again this week.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC