In Rio Rancho this morning, the backyard weather station says (at 6:01 am): the temperature was 27.1 F, the relative humidity was 52%, the relative pressure was 30.35 in Hg and steady, and the winds were 1.7 mph from the southwest. There are no clouds in the sky this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 51 F and a 5 mph northwest wind. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 25 F. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for this weekend and into early next week, as a storm system will move into the area, dropping temperatures and producing snow. More on this as the system approaches.
The visible satellite imagery is not available at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds. It has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that the trough has moved east. If we look closely, we can see the edge of an approaching system over the Pacific Northwest.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry sounding, with one moisture peak at 450 mb. Even so, the moisture is increasing, as shown by the 0.24 inches of precipitable water present this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). There is a complex pair of thermal inversions in the planetary boundary layer this morning, which lowered the 0-3 km average lapse rate to 2.2 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 25 kts, and the low-level shear was 6 kts. Most of this morning’s shear has been due to speed changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies and still winds across the state this morning.
The surface pressure map shows the high pressure that dominates the state this morning. There are no sharp pressure gradients, and the RAP shows the gradients decreasing over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the upper level trough has moved east, and that our upper level winds will become much slower as the ridge passes over us.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect a clear, pleasant day today. I don’t expect any precipitation, and I don’t expect any strong winds, either. Enjoy it while it lasts, we may have snow early next week…
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the <a href=”http://www.spc.noaa.gov/” target=”_blank”>Storm Prediction Center</a> website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from <a href=”http://www.twisterdata.com” target=”_blank”>TwisterData.com</a>.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from <a href=”http://weather.unisys.com” target=”_blank”>Unisys Weather</a>.
The satellite data is from <a href=”http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/” target=”_blank”>NASA – MSFC</a>