In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was cold, still and clear.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny day today, with a high temperature of 47 F and northwest winds of 5-10 mph. This evening, the weather will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 25 F and northwest winds of 5 mph.
Visible satellite imagery is not available at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds. It has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows a slight moisture boundary running from southwest to northeast through the state today.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry sounding. Overall, the precipitable water was 0.18 inches and there was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present in the column this morning. There was a thick but weak thermal inversion, which lowered the 0-3 km average lapse rate to 2.4 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 43 kts, and the low-level shear was 11 kts. The shear mostly due to speed changes as the trough moves out of the area, but there was some directional shear near the surface.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the clear skies, still winds and low temperatures.
The surface pressure map shows that New Mexico is dominated by high pressure at this point. There are no strong pressure gradients. This trend will continue for at least the next six hours, according to the RAP.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that by this evening, the trough will have moved out of our area. There will be some northerly flow on the backside of the trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state this morning. It has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state this morning. It has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart show no significant thermal advection over the state today. It has been excluded from today’s post as well.
Overall, I expect an uneventful day here in New Mexico. I think the weather will be clear and sunny, with only light winds.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC