In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather is cool, still and clear. The backyard weather station says that the temperature is 23.7 F, the relative humidity is 63%, the relative pressure is 30.47 in Hg and, and the winds are 0.7 mph from the northwest.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a mostly sunny day today, with a high temperature of 42 F. This evening, the skies will become partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 25 F. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for high winds in the Eastern Plains later this weekend, but Skywarn Spotter activation is not anticipated for the next few days.
It is too early for visible satellite imagery. It has been excluded from this post.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds. It has been excluded from this post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that the trough has moved east, steepening on the east side, and preparing to bring winter weather to the east.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that there is some upper level moisture and a small moisture peak over Albuquerque today, particularly at the 700 mb. This area also has a large thermal inversion, so there must be some strong moisture and Warm Air Advection (WAA) occurring. Otherwise, the precipitable water was 0.20 inches, and there was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) this morning. There was no surface inversion, just one around 700 mb, and the 0-3 km average surface lapse rate was only 2.3 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 27 kts, and the low-level shear was 16 kts. The shear dropped significantly when the trough moved east. The shear was due to speed changes, for the most part.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show clear skies, still winds and cool temperatures, statewide.
The surface pressure map shows a high pressure system over the Utah and Colorado border, which is contributing to our high pressure. This high will persist for at least the next six hours, according to the RAP.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) confirms what the water vapor imagery shows; the trough has moved east, and we will soon be under the influence of some upper-level ridging. Currently, the 300 mb flow is from the northwest.
The 500 mb level NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. It has been excluded from this post.
The 700 mb level NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. It has been excluded from this post.
The 850 mb level NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. It has been excluded from this post.
Overall, I expect a clear, cool day today in the Albuquerque Metro area. There isn’t much to say about it; high pressure, northwest flow at the 300 mb level, and sinking air. There was no thermal advection at the 850 mb level, but the sounding shows that there might be some at the 700 mb level, associated with the incoming ridge. It will be a good weekend to work in the garden, or perhaps work on my car.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC