Ohio Weather: 12/29/15

In Lodi this morning, the weather is cool, overcast, damp and occasionally breezy.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Cleveland forecasts a mostly cloudy and breezy day today and tonight. There is a high of 50 F forecasted, but the temperature will drop quickly this evening.

The visible satellite imagery shows the blanket of clouds over the state this morning.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds are uniformly thin across the state this morning.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows that even with the damp ground and the rain last night, Ohio is in a dry slot relative to the rest of the country.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Cincinnati shows that the bottom layer of the atmosphere is quite damp. The atmosphere quickly dries above 800 mb. There was 0.55 inches of precipitable water present this morning and no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). There was only a weak radiational inversion, but the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.9 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 75 kts, and the low-level shear was 37 kts. All of this shear was due to changes in wind speed.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the cloudy skies. The wind is circling around the mid-latitude cyclone.

The surface pressure map shows the mid-latitude cyclone over central Michigan. This system has weakened, though there is still a tight temperature gradient around the system.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows the jetstreak passing through Ohio, which explains our high deep-layer shear values. A second trough is moving through Texas today, though the thermal gradient is not as strong as the one that passed through a few days ago.

There is no strong vorticity advection over the state today, according to the 500 mb chart.

There is no rapidly rising air over the state today, according to the 700 mb chart.

There is a strong thermal gradient across Ohio today, according to the 850 mb NAM chart. The winds are blowing parallel to this gradient by this evening, but there will be some Cold Air Advection (CAA) affecting the area, which is why the temperature is expected to fall so rapidly by this afternoon.

Overall, I expect temperatures to continue to drop. I think the skies will remain cloudy, but I don’t think there will be much precipitation this afternoon. We are going to drive into the Cleveland area, so let’s hope for limited precipitation and warmer temperatures, and see how well “hoping” changes the weather.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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