The weather in Jersey, VA, this morning is rainy. Early this morning, there were some thunderstorms passing through the area. I delayed my shower due to some close lightning strikes.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Sterling, VA, forecasts an 80% chance of rain today, with a high temperature of 75 F. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for Flash Flooding in this area.
The visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover over the area this morning.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the high clouds tops and perhaps heavy precipitation over the area as well.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows moisture bunched up ahead of a cold front that sweeps across the country this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling shows a moist atmosphere above the Mid-Atlantic. Notice how the dewpoint trace (green) is very close to the temperature trace (red) throughout the entire atmosphere. There was 1.61 inches of precipitable water present, and a slight radiational inversion near the surface. The 0-3 km average lapse rate was only 4.6 C/km, however, this will increase throughout the day. In fact, we have a supercell parameter of 1.2, which is the most I’ve reported in several months for anywhere.
The deep-layer shear was 56 kts, and the low-level shear was 53 kts, which is more than I’ve seen in the low levels. Most of this shear is due to speed changes, versus directional changes.
Today is an abbreviated post, as I have some errands to run. Overall, I expect it to continue raining all day, but I do expect an embedded thunderstorm or two. I am not expecting chaseable storms, but a low-topped embedded supercell is possible.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC