Utah Weather: 11/8/15

In Salt Lake City this morning, the weather was cool, still and partly cloudy.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Salt Lake City forecasts a sunny day that will turn into a partly cloudy evening as a new storm system moves into the area. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for later this week, as snow will be possible by Monday Night. Skywarn Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts oto the NWS.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the state this morning.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that none of the clouds are very thick, and all have low, warm tops.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level disturbance moving through the northeastern Pacific Ocean and onto the West Coast. This will be the mechanism that generates the precipitation Utah will have in a few days.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Salt Lake City shows low dewpoint depressions ear the surface, but quickly becoming drier above 700 mb. The precipitable water this morning was 0.17 inches. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.4 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 31 kts, and the low-level shear was 27 kts. The is much higher than yesterday due to the approach of an upper level system.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the low dewpoints and cool temperatures, statewide. There are no major frontal boundaries or drylines present this morning.

The surface pressure map shows that there is some high pressure over east-central Utah, and that there is a small, but tight pressure gradient over the northeastern part of the state. Over, this pressure gradient will mix out, according to the RAP.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows the trough digging south just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This system is expected to rotate ad deepen, supplying upper level energy to the west for several days.

At the 500 mb level, there is no significant vorticity advection forecasted today over Utah.

At the 700 mb level, there is no significant rising air over Utah.

At the 850 mb level, there is no significant thermal advection over Utah.

Overall, I expect today to be a transition before the next synoptic scale storm. I am hoping we finish up here at the conference before the precipitation begins falling tomorrow

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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