I am at a conference in Salt Lake City, UT. The weather in Salt Lake City is cool, clear and still, from what I have seen from my window thus far this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Salt Lake City forecasts a sunny and clear day today, with a high of 51 F and a low tonight of 30 F. Skywarn Spotter activation will not be necessary today or tonight.
The visible satellite imagery and enhanced infrared imagery show no clouds over the state at this time. They have been excluded from this post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that Utah is above north of the extremely dry air, and that there are no major moisture gradients in the state.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Salt Lake City shows a relatively damp surface layer, with a surface dewpoint of 26 F and a surface temperature of 32 F. However, the air quickly dries out above 850 mb, and the precipitable water was only 0.18 inches. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present this morning and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was a whopping 1.0 C/km, which I’ve never seen before. There are two inversion layers present as well.
The deep-layer shear was 18 kts, and the low-level shear was 3 kts. The weak shear is due to the lull behind the trough that affected the area earlier this week.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show…well not much. It is interesting to me how few surface stations there are in Utah.
The surface pressure map shows a pressure gradient across the state, though it is not very steep. The high end of this is a 1036 mb high pressure over northwestern Colorado, and the entire state is under high pressure, dropping to 1028 mb in the southeastern corner. This dominant high pressure system will persist throughout (at least) the next six hours, according to the RAP.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that we are under the influence of a developing high pressure system. Notice how the winds are turning clockwise to the east of Utah.
The 500 mb chart shows no significant vorticity advection over Utah today, so it has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb chart shows no significant rising air over Utah today, so it has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb chart shows no significant thermal advection, so it has been excluded from today’s post.
Overall, I expect clear, sunny weather today. There are no major synoptic forces that will drastically change the weather today.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC