It is time to look ahead at the potential for severe weather this week.
Day 1: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for parts of the South. There is a large mesoscale convective system (MCS) ahead of the trough. The embedded thunderstorms in this system could produce damaging winds or a brief tornado. The threat will remain ahead of the warm front, in the area of tropical airmass, which overlaps an area of strong shear. This threat will continue throughout the day.
Associated with the Marginal Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring:
Day 2: No risk has been issued, though a few sporadic, non-severe storms are possible in the southeast, from the remnants of the trough that is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours. A few more sporadic storms are possible over the southwest in association with the Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) ahead of the next trough to push east.
Day 3: There is no risk issued at this time, though the SPC notes that a few strong thunderstorms can be expected ahead of the PVA and trough across the southwest and into the High Plains. Currently, there is a tropical airmass to the south, and the big player in the severe threat will be the extent of the moisture spreading into the High Plains. In areas of strong moisture return, a few storms will push severe limits.
Day 4-5: The SPC has issued a “Predictability Too Low” statement for these days. The trough will be continuing east, but a tropical airmass in southern Texas may receive some upper-level support and boost convection for a few severe storms, particularly over Day 4. However, timing in the model guidance is diverging, so the threat may linger into Day 5.
Day 6-8: The SPC has issued a “Potential Too Low” statement for these days. The limited severe threat from Day 4 will have completely diminished by Day 6.
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All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.