In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather was chilly, still and clear. For the first time this fall, I was actually cold on my walk between the bus and the train, and I was even wearing a leather jacket.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny, warm day, with a high of 70 F this afternoon. This evening will also be clear and calm, with a low of 40 F. There is a Special Weather Statement and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the entire Albuquerque Warning Area concerning the cold weather and snow potential later this week.
The visible and enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that there is no cloud cover, statewide, so it has been excluded from this post.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is some moisture return into the state.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that the surface was a little damp, with a 38 F dewpoint and a 46 F temperature. However, the low surface temperature is due to a large radiational inversion, and just above the surface, the temperatures are much warmer, and the dewpoints much colder. Overall, the atmosphere is quite dry, with only 0.27 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and, thanks to the strong inversion, the 0-3 km average lapse rate was only 3.3 C/km.
The deep-layer shear was 19 kts, and the low-level shear was 10 kts. The shear has dropped as the leading edge of the trough has moved farther east.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show no clouds and virtually no wind barbs from any station in New Mexico. There are no major frontal boundaries or drylines present in this chart.
The surface pressure map shows 1018 mb pressure near the Four Corners region, but no strong pressure gradient across the state thus far this morning. The RAP shows the pressure dropping over the next six hours, statewide, but that no strong gradients are expected to develop.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that one trough has moved east and weakened, while another one is digging south into California and Nevada. This trough will be a major factor in weather later this week.
The 500 mb chart shows no significant vorticity advection for the next few days over New Mexico.
The 700 mb chart shows no significant vertical velocities for the next few days over New Mexico.
The 850 mb chart shows no significant thermal advection for the next few days over New Mexico. This, unfortunately, will change.
Overall, I expect a clear, sunny day today. As the inversion mixes out, I think that today may even be a warm, pleasant day. As the moisture returns, and the next shortwave trough passes through, the weather over the next few days.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC