New Mexico Weather: 11/1/15

In Rio Rancho this morning, the weather has been cool, clear and there has been a slight breeze.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a clear and sunny day today. With the cloud cover gone, temperatures will increase higher this afternoon than they have over the past several days. In the evening, we will also be at the effect of more radiational cooling, without the clouds to limit it. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for later this week, as mentioned yesterday. Today, there is no severe threat and Skywarn Spotter activation will be unlikely.

The visible and enhanced infrared satellite imagery show that there are no clouds over the state. It has been excluded from this post.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows that New Mexico is in the dry plume of air behind the trough. Notice the darker pixels over New Mexico as compared to Mississippi.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that the atmosphere is dry from the surface upwards throughout the entire atmosphere. The surface dewpoint was 35 F, and the surface temperature was 44 F. The dewpoint depressions remain high, leading to 0.36 inches of precipitable water in the entire column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was only 3.9 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 24 kts, and the low-level shear was 16 kts. The shear has decreased as the jetstreak (and leading edge of the trough) has continued east.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the clear skies, light southern winds and low dewpoints. There are no major frontal boundaries or drylines present over the state this morning.

The surface pressure map shows that there is a 1022 mb high pressure area over the Four Corners Region, and no sharp pressure gradients over the state. The RAP predicts that diurnal heating will lower this pressure to 1014 mb over the next six hours, but because the heating will be mostly uniform over the cloudless ground, no strong pressure gradients will develop. Therefore, I expect winds to remain light today.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the trough has moved east, currently over eastern Texas and the Dallas Metro area. New Mexico is experiencing lighter winds aloft from the northwest. This pattern will persist for a few days until the next trough moves in from the Pacific Northwest, and will start affecting the weather Tuesday evening.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection for several days. There will be some Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) Tuesday evening, associated with the next approaching trough.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly rising air for several days.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advections for several days.

Overall, I expect a clear, calm, stable, cloudless day today in the Albuquerque Metro area. I will likely go for a hike in a little while and enjoy the weather. Perhaps it has dried out enough to take care of a few projects around the yard.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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