It is time for another look ahead at the potential for severe weather, as forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
Day 1: The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for parts of Arizona, Utah and western Colorado. This severe threat is driven by the trough that has extended southwards into Nevada. Some extra energy will be available as a jetstreak cycles around from Oregon into the Colorado River Valley later this afternoon. Storms that have formed in these areas are ahead of the lead impulse, which is currently weakening. However, the diurnal heating, rich moisture and approaching jetstreak should be enough to trigger a few strong storms, with small hail and gusty winds as the primary threat. For the Four Corners region, isolated storms and a few bow echos are possible. For western Arizona, strong storms are possible with the approaching jetsreak. For New Mexico, ongoing storms are expected to weaken as some dry air advects into the area at the mid-levels.
Day 2: The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for southern New Mexico and extreme western Texas. The trough is expected to transition into a stacked low, where rich moisture is drawn into the threat region. Also, winds are expected to veer and strengthen with height. Strong gusts and locally large hail are the primary threats.
Day 3: The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for southern New Mexico and parts of west Texas. The stacked low will move little, which will enhance moisture flow into the threat region. Dewpoints are predicted to be in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Isolated strong storms are possible, with large hails and severe wind gusts as the primary threats.
Day 4-7: The SPC has issued a “Potential Too Low” statement for these days. There is some divergence in model solutions for the location and timing of a trough that moves through the Rockies, there is good model agreement that severe weather will be extremely limited.
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All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.