In lieu of a weather prediction, I am going to report on what I am seeing for Socorro this morning.
Currently, there is a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for central Socorro County, including Socorro and the New Mexico Tech campus. The official word:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO…
* UNTIL 745 AM MDT
* AT 712 AM MDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOCORRO…
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
HAZARD…QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
SOCORRO…ESCONDIDA…LUIS LOPEZ AND LABORCITA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 141 AND 154.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
LAT…LON 3394 10691 3401 10700 3412 10696 3423 10666
TIME…MOT…LOC 1312Z 249DEG 18KT 3405 10686
On radar, I see a low-topped, but intense storm that has passed through Socorro (town) moving east. At this point, there is no sign of strong rotation, and I am not yet seeing any Three Body Scatter Spikes (TBSS), so perhaps the hail will not grow much larger.
Vertically, there is a little bit of shear, helping this tower to lean downwind.
Here is the severe core of this storm (as of a few minutes ago).
I am on the train, headed southbound. I will be in Socorro about an hour and 15 minutes from now, and I expect the storm to have moved on.
Since beginning this post, there has been a report via amateur radio of 1″ diameter hail two miles southeast of Socorro.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC