New Mexico Weather: 10/14/15

In Socorro this morning, the weather is cool, calm and clear. There are no clouds in the sky at all.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a sunny, clear day today for the Albuquerque Metro area. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for gusty winds later this week, but nothing is in place for today. I will report on this as it develops.

It is too early for visible satellite imagery.

It is too early for enhanced infrared satellite imagery.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows the extent of the dry, high pressure, continental polar air mass that dominates most of the country this morning. There are no sharp moisture gradients at the 700 mb to 400 mb level across the state today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a typical dry, fall day. The dewpoint depressions are high, leading to low relative humidity throughout the entire column. The precipitable water has dropped to 0.29 inches. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present this morning. There was a strong radiational inversion (as I said there would be yesterday), and this dropped the 0-3 km averaged surface lapse rate to 3.9 C/km. There is simply no lift present this morning.

The deep-layer shear was 22 kts, and the low-level shear was 19 kts. The deep-layer shear has decreased, but the low-level shear has increases as compared to yesterday. The low-level shear will probably continue to increase, or at least remain high, throughout the rest of the week, based on the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the NWS.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the low dewpoints over the central and western parts of the state. There is a dryline that runs from the northeastern corner to perhaps just west of Las Cruces; east of the dryline, the dewpoints climb into the 40’s, versus the 10’s and 20’s to the west of it. Conditions are still and clear, statewide.

The surface pressure map shows 1022 mb high pressure over the New Mexico and Colorado border, with no sharp pressure gradients present thus far this morning. The RAP shows that by six hours out, a thermal low will develop over New Mexico, changing the 1022 mb high pressure system into a 1012 mb low pressure system, but there will be no sharp pressure gradients over the next few hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the ridging present yesterday has diminished, leaving nearly-zonal flow over the state. I am using the term “flow” loosely, as there is very little upper level wind over the state today. Looping these model images shows that the little bit of ridging will continue to decrease throughout the next few days.

There are no significant vorticity advections present at the 500 mb level over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post. The model loop shows very little vorticity advection over the next few days.

There are no significant areas of rapidly rising air at the 700 mb level over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post. The model loop shows rising air over the state will be possible starting Thursday evening and Friday morning.

There are no significant thermal advections at the 850 mb level over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post. The model loop shows that there may be a back door cold front on Friday, so I’ll watch for that.

Overall, I expect another pleasant day today. I think it will be another one of those fall days in New Mexico; I start and end the day wearing a flannel shirt, only to run the car’s air conditioner in the middle of the day.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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