New Mexico Weather: 9/26/15

In Rio Rancho this morning, was cool, still and clear. I went for a run and could feel that there was a slight breeze. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 85.5 F, the relative humidity is 26%, the relative pressure is 30.05 in Hg and steady, and the winds are 2.2 mph from the east. The skies are totally clear and sunny thus far today. And, just for fun, the “gas can barometer” shows:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts a clear and sunny day today, with perhaps a few light clouds moving on towards evening. There is no hazardous weather forecasted for the Albuquerque NWS watch area.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state, and thus has been excluded from today’s post.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no new information, given that there are no clouds.

The water vapor satellite imagery shows that the dry feature from yesterday has begun to mix out a little bit, and that there is some moisture return across the west.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a clear, mostly dry sounding. The dewpoint depressions are not very high, and there was 0.60 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present this morning, and there was a small radiational inversion near the surface, which brought our 0-3 km lapse rate down to 5.3 C/km.

The deep-layer shear was 34 kts, the low-level shear was 7 kts. This would be marginal shear for supporting severe weather, if there was to be any severe weather today.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show dewpoints transitioning from the upper 30’s and 40’s into the 50’s in the south and east. Even so, there is not a sharp dryline, just a gradual transition. There are no major frontal boundaries present either, and the winds are calm for most of the state.

The surface pressure map shows no strong pressure gradients over the state. Mostly, the state is under the influence of average to high pressure, ranging from 1014 mb to 1018 mb.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows the trough is beginning to break away and become a closed low over Mexico. This is giving us northeasterly flow across the state at the 300 mb level.

This upper level flow is advecting some positive vorticity (PVA) into the northeastern corner of the state at the 500 mb level.

There is some rising air at the 700 mb level over the northwestern part of the state, apparently not associated with the PVA.

The 850 mb chart shows some very weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) near the eastern part of the state. Currently, the gradient is strong, but the winds are not, especially over New Mexico. The Panhandles, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado are seeing it, however, and perhaps it will turn into a back door cold front for us over the next few days.

Overall, I expect I am not going to have much to say today. The weather is great, and will remain great throughout the day, statewide. Enjoy it!

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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