It’s time for another weekly evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts for severe weather. Overall, this looks like a very calm week in terms of severe weather.
Day 1: The SPC has issued no severe risks for the remainder of Day 1. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms in the southwest due to the tropical disturbance that has moved into the area. However, nationwide, favorable Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and shear combinations are not available.
Day 2: The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for the Northern Great Plains. The primary threat are clusters of storms in the late evening/early morning hours (Tue/Wed) which may generate some hail and gusty winds. There is a shortwave trough that will reach the James Bay, and its trailing cold front will sweep through an area of rich moisture, steep lapse rates and strong heating have occurred. However, the flow will be weak, and thus shear will be weak, and updrafts will not strongly rotate.
Day 3: There are no organized threats of severe weather on Day 3, according to the SPC. Day 3 begins our descent into the “Potential Too Low” days. Shear is low or CAPE is low everywhere.
Day 4-8: The SPC has issued a “Potential Too Low” statement for these days. Overall, these days will be characterized by weak upper level flow. The SPC mentions a possible trough forming in the Pacific Northwest, but its impact, if any, will not occur until after Day 8.
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All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.