My prediction yesterday was not spectacular, particularly over my area. I said rain would be sparse. I hit the “Publish” button and heard the first crack of thunder outside. We did get some rain in Socorro.
In Socorro this morning, the weather is cool, the wind is still, and the skies are mostly cloudy.
The visible satellite imagery shows the skies over New Mexico are mostly cloudy, with a lot of clouds left over from yesterday’s precipitation.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that the thickest clouds are east of Albuquerque. I did not watch the radar yesterday (as I was teaching all day), but I would be willing to bet that the strongest showers and thunderstorms formed west of Albuquerque, and we are seeing their remains drifting east in the slow, upper-level winds.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is still ample moisture across New Mexico today. There is also no upper level disturbance threatening to scour that moisture away.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with the lowest humidity being near the surface. The sounding takes on an inverted-v type shape. There was 1.03 inches of precipitable water in the column.
The shear is incredibly low; 9 kts low-level shear, and 4 kts deep-layer shear. Storms that form today will have no upper level support and will be poorly ventilated.
**Update** I started this post this morning, but did not finish it. Unfortunately, due to some minor emergencies that need my immediate attention this afternoon, I won’t do a full prediction, and this late in the day, there is little to say.
So far, the afternoon has been warm and humid. There are some cumulus clouds building around Socorro, so I expect that showers and thunderstorms will be likely today.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC