I grabbed a few radar images from yesterday’s storms. I live really close to the Albuquerque radar, so I don’t have 3D imagery of these storms. I would like to point out that Idalia Rd is the killer of all storms, apparently.
In Rio Rancho this morning, it was pleasant, though it heated up quickly. I worked in the garden and went for a run first thing this morning. The backyard weather station says that the temperature is 99.1 F, the relative humidity is 25%, the relative pressure is 29.98 in Hg and falling, and the winds are 3 mph from the east. There are some developing (and fluffing out) cumulus clouds about, as shown from this photo.
The visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus clouds, particularly where topography is enhancing lift, such as over the mountain ridges and high plateaus.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that a few of the cumulus clouds are getting some height to them. Notice the cluster in the southeastern corner; it has higher, cooler tops. A few clusters in the west are building as well.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that New Mexico is still very moist. There is some dry air advecting west from Texas, but it is still a ways from the border, and will likely not set up any sort of dryline in New Mexico today.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that much more energy was available as compared to yesterday morning. We had 1058 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present this morning, though there was also 267 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN) to limit morning convection. There was still 1.07 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.
In terms of shear, the deep-layer shear has increased from yesterday to 11 kts, which was well below what is required for ventilated storms. The low-level shear was 2 kts.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show dewpoints in the upper 40’s and low 50’s across the state. The winds are calm, and there is no major frontal boundaries present, though there may be an outflow boundary or two left from yesterday’s convection that is not showing up on this radar overlay.
The surface pressure map shows a developing thermal low over the western part of the state. So far, the pressure has dropped to 1010 mb, so it is not very strong. However, a day of full sunshine and thermal heating may deepen this low.
Synoptically speaking, the NAM (from Unisys) shows that our thermal ridge is still in place. This ridge is visible on the 300 mb chart.
The 500 mb chart shows that there is some Positive Vorticity, but it isn’t moving anywhere quickly. Therefore, this chart has been excluded.
The 700 mb chart shows strongly rising air over the western part of the state, likely due to the developing thermal low. Based on this, I would expect it to intensify.
The 850 mb chart shows no significant thermal advection. Just another hot day.
Overall, I expect storms to start firing soon, particularly in the western part of the state, as well as anywhere there is some upslope flow to generate lift. I expect the thermal low to intensify throughout the day as well.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC