It is already hot today in Rio Rancho. I slept in this morning and then went out to pick some vegetables in the garden. My backyard weather station says the temperature is 91.9 F, the relative humidity is 26%, the relative pressure is 30.18 in Hg, and the winds are still.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few cumulus clouds over the mountain ridges, but otherwise clear skies over the state.
The infrared satellite imagery has no new information to report today, due to the lack of cloud cover.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows that our air is a little drier than it has been for several days. The dry air that moved in from the southeast has pushed all the way through the state, and is now mixing with the moist air from the southwest.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows an “inverted-v” type sounding. The dry air has advected through the Albuquerque Metro area, but there is still plenty of moisture aloft. Notice the low dewpoint depressions between 650 mb and 550 mb. There is still 0.77 inches of precipitable water present in the column today.
Low-level shear is adequate for rotating storms (17 kts), but the deep-layer shear will not support them (19 kts).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show that dewpoints are in the upper 40s and low 50s throughout the state. The winds are calm all over and no major frontal boundaries are present.
In terms of surface pressure, there is a high pressure system (1024 mb) developing over the Four Corners region. This is responsible for some of the mixing, and the clear skies.
The NAM is showing no significant thermal or vorticity advection, and little rising air over the state.
Overall, I think today will be hot. I am not expecting many showers and thunderstorms, though an occasional shower may form, due to the moisture aloft. I don’t expect any storms to reach severe limits, given the low shear, but the inverted-v sounding may lead to some gusty winds, should a storm form.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC