Today is beautiful thus far. The temperature was cool and the breeze still this morning. I picked some vegetables from the garden and didn’t break a sweat. There are some high clouds about, mostly cirrostratus. According to my backyard weather station, the temperature is 76.6 F, the relative humidity is 46%, the relative pressure is 30.05 in Hg and the winds are still.
The visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover over most of the state, with some heavier cumuloform clouds over the southern I-25 corridor.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds in the south are slightly thicker, but certainly not well-developed vertically.
The water vapor satellite imagery shows the rich moisture plume extending through the state of New Mexico.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows variable moisture, but relatively high mid-level dewpoints. Currently, there is no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and the precipitable water stands at 0.86 inches.
Shear is low. Deep-layer shear is only 16 kts and low-level shear is only 4 kts.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show the still surface winds, and no major frontal boundaries. Dewpoints were mostly in the upper 40’s and low 50’s.
One thing I do see is that the NAM is showing rapidly rising air over central New Mexico. The NAM 700 mb chart (provided by Unisys) shows this. I looked at the 850 mb and the 500 mb charts, and there is only weak Warm Air Advection (WAA) and little vorticity advection.
With the adequate mid-level moisture and potential for rapidly rising air (as shown by the NAM at 700 mb), I expect a few showers and thunderstorms, particularly through the Albuquerque Metro area. Storms that form will be poorly ventilated and will likely not reach severe limits.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC