Yesterday threatened to rain on several occasions, but never did at the Rio Rancho house. I was on the south side of Albuquerque, and got some rain, so the storms just missed us. There were a few severe wind reports in the southwestern corner of the state.
Today, the temperature is 81.3 F, the relative humidity is 43%, the relative pressure is 30.09 in Hg, and the winds are light. There are some vertically developing cumulus clouds all around my sky, as shown in this photo from my front yard.
The visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the state. However, cumulus clouds are forming, especially in the western half of the state.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that the convection from yesterday has exited the state to the east, and is still a little thicker (cooler-topped) than the clouds over New Mexico thus far today.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is still plenty of moisture present in the atmosphere, though we don’t have the sharp boundary we did yesterday.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque confirms the presence of moisture, with 0.93 inches of precipitable water and a surface dewpoint of 58 F. There was 348 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) present, and 132 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN).
In terms of shear, we had 12 kts of low-level shear this morning, and 41 kts of deep-layer shear this morning. 41 kts is enough to support rotating storms.
The surface observations map shows temperatures that are slightly warmer than yesterday at this time, equivalently high dewpoints, and still surface winds.
The surface pressure map with radar overlay shows the broadening of the 1018 mb high pressure system over New Mexico. It has grown in areal size, and the low pressure system over Northern Mexico and the low pressure system over the Nevada/California border have weakened.
The surface CAPE has been increasing throughout the morning, and the little capping inversion that was in place has weakened.
The RAP shows that by 21 Z, the moisture increases at around 675 mb, bringing the dewpoint depression down and the relative humidity up.
I am playing with the simulated radar reflectivities. I won’t post them today, but the RAP has storms forming in the western half of the state in the next few hours, peaking in areal coverage around 21Z, and then decreasing through the evening.
I do expect some storms today. The high CAPE in the southwestern corner of the state, and the adequate deep-layer shear may yield a few severe storms this afternoon. Shear will be better in the north than in the south, and CAPE will be better in the south than in the north. If the simulated radar pans out, this evening should be mostly precipitation-free, and the storms will dissipate by 2Z.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The New Mexico Watches and Warnings weather graphic is from the Albuquerque NWS website.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC