I am in the early stages of preparing for a potential storm chase on Wednesday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk on the Day 3 outlook for severe weather.
Associated with that risk is a 30% probability of severe weather ring. At this point, they don’t specify what type of severe weather, but more information will be made available throughout the next two days.
The 300 mb GFS shows a closed low developing over the Pacific Northwest, and a low-amplitude short-wave trough moving east. An associated speed max will nudge its way into Colorado during Wednesday afternoon and evening, boosting shear and vorticity.
A surface low is expected to form near the New Mexico and Texas border, which will act to funnel moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up into the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska tri-state area.
There are other things I am looking at as well, but I am having trouble with my screen capture tool, and need to find a less-cumbersome way to post images in this blog.
I think that given the right combination of shear and instability, severe storms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Tuesday will likely be out of play (SD/ND) for me, but Wednesday is a strong possibility. Currently, I am tentatively targeting Fort Morgan, CO, but that is really, really early.
Currently, my chase vehicle is nowhere near ready. I have not ordered a box to mount radio equipment, and my antenna mounts have not yet arrived. I can still do some storm chasing, however, with the radios between the seats and magnetic mounts. I don’t particularly like to use magnetic mounts, and will probably pull them down during storm initiation (at least the HF mount).
Thank you for reading my prediction.
The Severe Weather Outlook is from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite imagery is from the NOAA Satellite and Information Service.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.