I started a severe weather prediction this morning in response to the Enhanced Risk (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). However, some problems with Google Chrome prevented me from posting it.
Instead, I did capture some radar images from southeastern Oklahoma this evening.
If I had been chasing, these would have been the storms I would have chased. The shear was great everywhere, and, even though the Enhanced Risk was farther north, I liked the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) between Wichita Falls, TX, and Anadarko, OK, better than what I saw in Missouri. I was afraid the cloud cover over Missouri would limit storm development, as it was still burning off by mid-afternoon in this area, but there were clear skies over Oklahoma.
The vertical slice shows these towers leaning from the sheared environment.
I started watching a severe-warned cell on the southwest edge of a line of storms. This storm was producing 1.25″ diameter hail.
I also looked at the storm relative velocity. There was some weak rotation with this storm.
Watching this storm some more, I saw that it had a strange notch on the inflow side, at least at the base scan level.
A cross section of this notch reveals that it was where there was strong inflow into the storm. Drawing my cross section line where I did, I am a little hesitant to call this a Bounded Weak Echo Region (BWER), but we do have an area with low reflectivity at the surface with much larger reflectivities above it.
So far, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows only hail reports in Missouri, so in spite of these images, Oklahoma may have dodged the bullet this evening!
Thank you for reading my post.