There were no severe storms yesterday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for parts of the Gulf Coast today.
Associated with the Slight Risk area is a 5% Tornado Threat Ring.
There are storms already firing, and at least one Tornado Warning is in place. Looking at the base reflectivity, we can see an intense storm just north of Crowley, LA.
The vertical profile shows a tiny Bounded Weak Echo Region (BWER) in this low topped (~40,000 ft) storm.
The Storm Relative Velocity (SRV) shows winds in opposite directions just north of Crowley, LA. This storm is rotating, and may have a tornado.
The 14:45Z surface observations and analysis (by Unisys) show a line of precipitation and storms extending through the Slight Risk area along the cold front.
Examining the weather leading up to this system, the 12Z upper air sounding from Lake Charles, LA, shows 1045 J/kg of skinny Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and a supercell parameter of 7.3. There is also a ton of low level shear (38 kts) and high deep-layer shear (60 kts). Any storms that form will begin to rotate quickly.
The visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover over the entire threat area, but some areas in these clouds are thicker than the others; there are areas of convection present.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no Warm Air Advection (WAA) in the area. The winds are blowing with the temperature gradient in the Slight Risk area.
The 700 mb chart shows a few areas of intense upward vertical velocities in Louisiana. The southwest corner is near the Lake Charles sounding, for a reference point.
The 300 mb chart shows the approaching trough that is stirring up some of this trouble.
This would be a tough area to chase storms. I think this system will continue to produce storms, and I will be watching it this afternoon.
Thank you for reading my prediction.
The Severe Weather Outlook is from the
Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite imagery is from the NOAA Satellite and Information Service.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.