Moderate Risk: 5-27-13, I’m headed the wrong direction!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for today. Naturally, I’m on my way home, and there is no extending our stay….

5-27-13at1250z

To add insult to injury, there is a hatched, greater than 10% tornado risk for the NE/KS border, not too far from where we were yesterday:

5-27-13at1250ztorn

Playing again with the SREF tools, the surface CAPE will be decent in this area (3000 J/kg), but mostly towards the southern edge of the hatched area.

5-28-13at0zcapeprediction

The entire area is under a supercell parameter of 12, so I didn’t post the graphic for this. I would like to find out how they calculate supercell parameter, but I think that makes a good winter-time, no chase opportunity activity. For now, I’ll use it and see where it takes me. Yesterday was a strike out, so it’s 0 for 1.

Another thing I find interesting is that the tornado parameter increases from 0z to 3z, meaning the tornadoes will likely spin up closer to dusk. The tornado parameter (however it is calculated) increases to 8 in KS.

5-28-13at3ztornparameter

Based on all of this information, I would target:

1. Clay Center, KS
2. Junction City, KS
3. Abilene, KS

All images are from the Storm Prediction Center.

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.