The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for today. Naturally, I’m on my way home, and there is no extending our stay….
To add insult to injury, there is a hatched, greater than 10% tornado risk for the NE/KS border, not too far from where we were yesterday:
Playing again with the SREF tools, the surface CAPE will be decent in this area (3000 J/kg), but mostly towards the southern edge of the hatched area.
The entire area is under a supercell parameter of 12, so I didn’t post the graphic for this. I would like to find out how they calculate supercell parameter, but I think that makes a good winter-time, no chase opportunity activity. For now, I’ll use it and see where it takes me. Yesterday was a strike out, so it’s 0 for 1.
Another thing I find interesting is that the tornado parameter increases from 0z to 3z, meaning the tornadoes will likely spin up closer to dusk. The tornado parameter (however it is calculated) increases to 8 in KS.
Based on all of this information, I would target:
1. Clay Center, KS
2. Junction City, KS
3. Abilene, KS
All images are from the Storm Prediction Center.