Slight Risk: 5-26-13

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk today for much of the northern plains.

5-26-13at1254z

Accompanying this slight risk is a very large area of 5% tornado threat:

5-26-13at1254ztorn

I started playing with the SPC Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) tools. According to it, the best definition of a dryline is from the CO/NE southern border through the TX panhandle, but it never quite moves any farther east.

5-27-13at0zdpprediction

There is also better CAPE along the dryline in KS:

5-27-13at0zcapeprediction

I did not understand what the shear map was trying to show me, but I did look up the “supercell parameter”, even though I have no idea how it is calculated:

5-27-13at0zsupercellprediction

My initial target is perhaps Phillipsburg, KS, but I will do more analysis on the road.

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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