Moderate Risk: 5-23-13

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for a tight bullseye in the southern Texas Panhandle:
5-23-13at1225z

Included with this risk is a 10% tornado ring:

5-23-13at1225ztorn

From the SPC description, we are looking for warm sector storms to develop in an area with little forcing. There is expected to be plenty of CAPE, and some shear due to the shortwave passing through. Possible areas of convection will be along an outflow boundary from morning convection in Oklahoma, and perhaps some upslope flow along the plateau edge in central Texas.

Currently, we are located in Childress, TX. The dewpoint is around 62F, which is a good sign. It’s not very breezy, though we are under clear skies. So far, there is no sign of an outflow boundary visible on either the Amarillo, TX or Frederick, OK radars, but we’ll be watching that closely.

It looks like the southern Texas Panhandle has the CAPE, increasing as daytime heating continues:

5-23-13at15zmlcape

…but southwest Oklahoma has the shear:

Bulk effective shear, 15Z

Bulk effective shear, 15Z

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The better lift is in the southern Texas panhandle:

5-23-13at15zsbli

I think we will hang out in Childress until we see an outflow boundary or a good cumulus field starting to develop. Right now, we are in a pretty good spot, so I think we’ll go to a park or museum for an hour or so, and just keep an eye out for developing storms…

Images modified from the Storm Prediction Center

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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