The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a slight risk for parts of KS and MO:
included with this risk is a tight 5% tornado ring:
SPC shows this as a potential for the day, yet the mesoscale graphics show the predictions being much farther south across Oklahoma. I’m not sure why. Also, the most interesting sounding of the day, Wichita, is absent. Dodge City is behind the system, and there is no CAPE, and Norman shows some threat.
SPCs’s COMP MAP shows a lack of moisture (dew points only in the 40s), though there are some weak surface level winds coming in from the Gulf. There is also a low pressure system in Colorado; maybe the remnants of a weak mid-latitude cyclone pushing eastward. The warm fronts and cold fronts have almost merged, and perhaps that will help jog any storm initiation today.
At 850mb, there is winds from the southwest. These will dry out the moisture- but they could set up a stronger dryline as the system develops.
I’m saying there might be storms- and if there are, they will go severe. However, I think SPC will drop the 5% risk throughout the day. Even so, I would target:
1. Kinsey, KS
2. Greensburg, KS
3. Platt, KS