Today started out early from Rio Rancho, NM. SPC had issued a moderate risk for central KS and south central NE, with a 5% tornado ring in this area. I thought there was no way I could make it that far north and east from Rio Rancho, especially on the limited sleep I had that night. My plan was to get to Liberal, KS and then evaluate how far away into the risk area I could reach.
Somehow, I managed to pull out of Rio Rancho fueled up, loaded up and ready around 8:45-9:00am. There is something very right about starting a storm chase listening to Winston Churchill’s “We Will Fight” speech, followed by “Aces High” live by Iron Maiden.
I made pretty good time streaking across NM. I ran Quay, NM on the county hunter amateur radio net, listened to Iron Maiden, Alan Jackson, and Marvin Gaye, and cruised with the windows down until Dalhart, TX. I have sunburn on my left arm from hanging it out of the window.
At 19:21z, I was just leaving Dalhart, TX on US-54 and was just starting to see the first clouds all day. There were a few cumulus-looking clouds beginning to show to my northeast. I also received an updated SPC map that showed the 5% tornado risk had extended farther north (out of play for me), but the 2% risk stayed about the same. I was still headed to Liberal, KS. GOES East did not yet show any sort of cumulus field, and the SPC Comp Map showed no CINH along the dryline, with a CAPE Max of 2500 J/KG just west of Woodward, OK. The dryline was running parallel to US-54, but I was clearly on the dry side of it. The atmosphere felt dry, and the NWS kept reporting the risk for fires. Winds were out of the south or southwest for most of the TX panhandle, slowly shifting to the west as a frontal boundary passed over the area. The moisture had not returned to the plains, however. The dewpoints were only in the low 50s, maybe as high as 56F near the dryline. The focus on this setup would be along the dryline, and picking out a storm that was not moisture starved. The front had likely already left Dalhart, as the winds were from the west.
At 19:42z, I had just crossed over the Dallam/Sherman, TX county line and the clouds to the northeast were starting to build. Several small convective bubbles were developing. SPC Comp Map showed a warm front near the TX/NM border and a cold front draped across KS, all spiraling from a surface low in the OK panhandle. I expected that to move northeast with the approaching shortwave.
At 20:18z, I just pulled out of Goodwell, OK. A Mesoscale Discussion was posted. It mentions the CAPE max to my west and says that there is an 80% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch box being issued.
At 20:46z, I stopped to refuel in Guymon, OK. The Mesoscale Discussion shows tornadoes as unlikely, but a non-zero possibility. The 5% tornado ring had moved farther north. Distinct cumulus clouds are showing up visibly and on GOES East in a narrow but long line from NE to TX.
At 23:31z I ran a few more counties on amateur radio, and then headed north on US-183 just west of Greensburg, KS. The NWS is saying Skywarn activation will be needed east of a line between Hays, KS and Dodge City, KS.
At 0:20z, I stopped in Kinsley, KS for a few minutes. There are several cells going up; the most well defined is to the north, with a nice backshear on it, and cyclic overshooting tops.
This cell proved to be very far away, and falling apart anyway. To my west, I had this ragged looking, moisture-starved cell:
I pulled over and checked SPC, both for today and tomorrow. I didn’t want to get suckered too far north after a cell I could not catch. After doing a relatively thorough analysis (and dozing off for five minutes), this is what I saw next:
A little side note to those of you who are new to chasing: never get so caught up in radar images, models and computers that you forget to look up…
At one point, I thought there was a brief funnel. However, I admittedly have no photos, and it was only there a few seconds, so I was not able to do much viewing of it. The storm was farther away than this last photo too, so that made observation more difficult. I’m surely not counting it as “tornado seen”.
The lightning with this storm was not as impressive as the storm a few nights ago, and the structure was not as well defined. I tried to take a few pictures about 9 miles north of Great Bend, KS on US-281, but with no luck. Mostly flashes of lightning around random clouds more so than impressive lightning photos from a supercell.
I ended up spending the night in the Great Bend, KS Travelodge. It’s been a pretty good hotel thus far, wireless, fridge and microwave, and cold air conditioning. I ended up with a double room, but it’s just me… The stairways are really inconveniently located, so that is a real consideration for future stays. The entire upstairs only has two staircases, so you are always parked a long ways from one.
I have a ton of GOES EAST 1km images, but they are on a different computer, so I will post them later…
The complete route:
That pretty well matches my APRS track (thanks Mom and Dad!)
Starting Odometer: 247939
Ending Odometer: 248576
High Plains Chasing 