Today looks like the best set up yet for the 2012 storm chase. We are currently in Oklahoma City, and will likely venture gently west to catch storms later today.
The SPC has issued a slight risk for a good portion of the plains. There is a 5% tornado ring in KS, but For us, the most interesting part of the 2% risk is the part that loops through TX/OK.
Looking at the OUN sounding and the DDC sounding, we see that there is plenty of CAPE predicted in the area, as well as adequate shear. The forecasted CINH is a little higher in Dodge City than in Norman.
Looking at the SPC Comp Map at 14Z, there is plenty of shear in western OK, where the 300mb winds are from the southwest and the 850mb winds are from the south:
The dryline is much more tightly bunched in TX behind the warm front, but there is an interesting jog where it crosses the cold front in OK.
And just to highlight the position of the fronts:
Now, another attempt at predicting the capping inversion. I have heard that a 700mb temperature of 12C is a hard cap to break. Looking at the GFS (and the NAM, for that matter, though this graphic is from GFS at the OU HOOT lab), we see that the threat area has a 700mb temperature of 10-15C.
Right now, my tentative targets are:
1. Arnett, OK
2. Laverne, OK
3. Coldwater, KS