5-24-12 Predictions, Chase Day

The SPC has issued a moderate risk, PWSO and 10% tornado ring for WI/MN, which is way out of the area we could reach today. Instead, we will focus on the slight risk tail that leads into KS/NE, with no tornado ring.

I think at best, we’ll be chasing hailers. The soundings look like garbage, and I think most everything will die in the cap. The Dodge City sounding shows shear, but no CAPE. Almost everywhere else within reach might show some CAPE, but forecasted CINH of -300J/kg or more.

Looking at the SPC COMP Map, there seems to be an interesting combination of dryline, cold front and shear across southern KS/northern OK. The soundings look like garbage from this area, however, with little to no CAPE forecasted for the area.

The RUC is pretty depressing, but the GFS shows a ton of CAPE in central OK/KS, and a tiny amount of shear. It also shows the CINH eroding in north central OK at 0Z:

I’m targeting:

1. Alva, OK
2. Medford, OK
3. Medicine Lodge, KS

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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