5-30-11 Predictions

SPC has issued a moderate risk for the upper Great Plains, with a 10% hatched area tornado threat and a Public Severe Weather Outlook:


The 300mb winds and 850mb winds are close to the same direction in the area, but don’t quite overlap yet. Also, there is a giant loop in the 300mb winds which might push through at some point.

The dryline is well defined to the south, loses its clarity around KS/NE, but then regains its definition in northern NE and into the Dakotas. The wet side of this dryline shows dew points of around 68-72F.

I also checked the soundings in the area, and found the sounding from OAX to be interesting- it looks like enough CAPE, and enough shear as well.

However, I think one of the dominating features of this is the warm front that is heading north through the target area. My first target would be a bit of a gamble, just in case the front stalled. Also, I’m a little worried my targets are too far east, this may line out and I miss the discrete cells, but here is my initial pass at targets:

1. Yankton, SD
2. Mitchell, SD
3. Watertown, SD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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