SPC has issued a slight risk for parts of Oklahoma. This includes a 2% tornado threat area east of Oklahoma City.
There is almost no dryline, and the frontal boundary is a long ways away. The sounding from OKC showed zero cape, even though it is forecast to go to 3100 J/kg. The dewpoint is in the low 60s in the target area, so there is some chance there.
Having said that, the shear is not too shabby in the area. Looking at the SPC Comp Map, the winds at 300mb are from the west, and the the winds at 850mb are from the Gulf of Mexico.
Just graphing shear and helicity, we see the helicity maximum over the risk area:
Shear doesn’t make a storm, it just makes existing storms better organized. I think I’m calling a cap bust today, but I am still making predictions:
1. Shawnee, OK
2. Prague, OK
3. Chandler, OK