5-19-11 Predictions

These are really late. Now that I am done with school (and off work until July 15), and have no contract with EMRTC, I have been so un-busy that I forget to do things sometimes….

There is a moderate risk for the central plains today:

with a tornado threat area that looks like:

Looking at the SPC comp map, I can see 300mb winds from the southwest, and 850mb winds from the south and southeast, giving us ample shear.

Looking at the SPC comp map, I can also see that there is a dryline which is marching in step with a warm front across OK, but there is an area where the dryline crosses a second warm front running west to east. This is shown in my prediction picture at the bottom of this post.

Looking at the SPC comp map again, I can see that the CAPE and helicity are overlapping in the same area, as we would expect:

I also pulled the 1200z soundings for Dodge City and Oklahoma City, both of which confirm these CAPE numbers and show spiraling hodographs.

Based on this, I would pick:

1. Ness City, KS
2. Hays, KS Salina, KS updated 4:02pm MDT
3. Hill City, KS

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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1 Response to 5-19-11 Predictions

  1. Kevin Myatt says:

    Warnings already going up near Hays. VT team in Pratt, KS area.

    Like

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